MFA Bayesian Model Selection for Network Discrimination and Risk-informed Decision Making in Material Flow Analysis [Link (awaiting publication)]

Material flow analyses (MFAs) provide insight into supply chain level opportunities for resource efficiency. MFAs can be represented as networks with nodes that represent materials, processes, sectors or locations. MFA network structural uncertainty (i.e., the existence or absence of flows between nodes) is pervasive and can undermine the reliability of the flow predictions. This article investigates MFA network structure uncertainty by proposing candidate node-and-flow structures and using Bayesian model selection to identify the most suitable structures and Bayesian model averaging to quantify the parametric mass flow uncertainty. The results of this holistic approach to MFA uncertainty are used in conjunction with the input-output (I/O) method to make risk-informed resource efficiency recommendations. These techniques are demonstrated using a case study on the U.S. steel sector where 16 candidate structures are considered. Model selection highlights 2 networks as most probable based on data collected from the United States Geological Survey and the World Steel Association. Using the I/O method, we then show that the construction sector accounts for the greatest mean share of domestic U.S. steel industry emissions while the automotive and steel products sectors have the highest mean emissions per unit of steel used in the end-use sectors. The uncertainty in the results is used to analyze which end-use sector should be the focus of demand reduction efforts under different appetites for risk. This article’s methods generate holistic and transparent MFA uncertainty that account for structural uncertainty, enabling decisions whose outcomes are more robust to the uncertainty.





MFA Expert Elicitation and Data Noise Learning for Material Flow Analysis using Bayesian Inference [Link]

Bayesian inference allows the transparent communication of uncertainty in material flow analyses (MFAs) with the uncertainties reduced as newly collected data are included. However, the method is undermined by the difficultly of defining proper priors for the MFA parameters and quantifying the noise in the collected data. We start to address these issues by first deriving an expert elicitation framework suitable for generating MFA parameter priors. Second, we propose to learn the data noise concurrent with the parametric uncertainty. These methods are demonstrated using a case study on the 2012 U.S. steel flow. Eight experts were interviewed to elicit distributions on steel flow uncertainty from raw materials to intermediate goods. The experts’ distributions were combined and weighted depending on the expertise demonstrated in response to seeding questions. These aggregated distributions form our model priors. MFA data were then collected from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the World Steel Association (WSA) which are pub- lished without uncertainties. A sensible, weakly-informative prior was used to describe data noise. Bayesian inference was used to update the parametric and data noise uncertainty. The results show the reduction in MFA parametric uncertainty when incorporating the collected data. Only a modest reduction in data noise uncertainty was observed; however, greater reductions were achieved when using data from multiple years in the inference. These methods generate transparent MFA and data noise uncertainties learned from data rather than based on input uncertainty assumptions, providing a more robust basis for decision-making that affects the system.




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